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djw180

Betting on the Horses

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djw180

I've been keeping track of the results of horse races in the casino, since they updated it, and this is what I have found. I will update this as I get more data. I think there's enough to be sure of the main conclusion though. It has changed since they released this. The chances of winning by betting on horse one are not as good as they were originally, but you should stil be able to gurantee a profit if you know when not to bet or just make a small bet.

Brief explanation of how R* have set this up.

  • 6 horses in the race
  • Horse 1 and Horse 2 always have odds between evens and 5:1
    • most of the time Horse 1 is the favourite, sometimes they have the same odds
  • Horses 3,4,5, & 6 always have odds of at least 6:1

 

Main conclusion: If horse1 is evens and ALL other horses have greater odds the chance of horse 1 winning is 0.58, based on 74 races.

 

Other situations

  • horse1 and horse2 have the same odds, chance of horse1 winning is 0.36, based on 28 races
  • horse1 is 2:1, ALL others 3:1 or longer odds, chance of horse 1 winning is 0.48, based on 27 races
    • 27 races isn't a lot so maybe with more data this will turn out to be worth betting on horse1
  • horse1 is longer odds than 2:1. all others longer odds than horse 1, chance of horse 1 winning is 0.35, based on 40 races
  • I have not bothered trying to calculate the chances of horses at the longer odds winning.

 

 

So if you only place large bets on horse 1 when it is the clear favourite, i.e. it is even odds, horse 2 is 2:1 or longer, you would expect to make decent money.

 

If horse2 is the same odds as horse 1 or horse 1 is not evens, then don't bet, or least do not put a big bet on horse 1. Either back out (press O) and try again, hoping you get a different race with better odds, or just for fun put a small bet on any horse you like.

 

 

 

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SINISTER120

The member over at GTAF that is an insider has said that R* has not changed a single thing about horse racing since it was launched. The RNG system used by the game is said to be very complex and every single time you log onto the game your "luck" changes. They said if your luck is bad, restart the game.

General consensus is to continue betting on the number 1 because it still wins the most. Best chances are when number 2 is 5/1 and number 1 is anything lower. Players are still making millions from Inside Track.

That said, I love posts like these. Good to see players taking to time to track things and figure out the odds :)

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Fido_le_muet

I kept track of results for 50 races but couldn't come to any clear conclusion other than Horse 1 winning more than 50% of races. 

I collected data over 2 days and at least 3 console restarts. 

I kinda agree that your luck seems to change a bit after you restart the game. 

I spend about 1 hour a day betting on horse and so far I have made more than a million. Always betting on horse 1. He wins more than half the races. 

Some sessions are better than others though. I won 400k and 500k in 45 minutes but sometimes I only won 100k in the same time frame. Always making a profit though. Seems consistent with the luck changing everytime you restart the game. 

I stopped collectiong data because it was taking too long (kept track of horses names, odds and colors lol).

My strategy so far : always bet on horse 1, except if it's evens. I back out and come back to reset the odds. I haven't had much luck when horse 1 and 2 have the same odds. I always bet the maximum : 10000 chips. I never buy chips. Only use what I win from Ms Baker missions. I use a very small percentage of my gains to play Diamond Miner slots (about 20-25k chips after every Inside Track session). Really want to win the 2.5 millions :D 

Horse 1 often wins when the gap between #1 and #2 is highest (ie Horse 1 is 2/1 and horse 2 is 5/1).

But really, always betting on Horse 1 is guaranteed profit. I have no idea if this changed since the release of the casino DLC as I started keeping track after that. 

Also, it's very frustrating to see horse 4, 5 or 6 win :D 


 

toYHMZH.png

 

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SINISTER120

Be careful with backing out to reset the horses/odds. One thing R* did implement is a system to track macros. Go in and out too quickly/much and you will be temporarily banned from betting.

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DavidCore89

Interesting.

Have had a few losing streaks, still up overall.

I just bet max on horse 1 regardless of odds. Don't do the backing out thing. 


Six-times Jump Rope world champion // Three-times Tic-Tac-Toe runner-up // Two-times Hopscotch world champion // Two-times Wheelbarrow Race world champion // One-time Marco Polo runner-up // One-time Musical Chairs European champion.

Owner of a 25-metre swimming badge.

"Finishing second means you are the first person to lose"  - Gilles Villeneuve.

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zztop911

More illustrious stupid R* bullshit!

Yesterday with the tunables, R*  came up with new BS! If you win three times in a row, you will be kicked to story mode automatically!


Welcome to the nuthouse or the slaughter house................it.just depends!

You never know what's going to happen, but rest assured, it's gonna be fun!

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djw180
21 minutes ago, zztop911 said:

More illustrious stupid R* bullshit!

Yesterday with the tunables, R*  came up with new BS! If you win three times in a row, you will be kicked to story mode automatically!

I haven't noticed that, but I can't say for sure I have won 3 in a row. I'll keep a check next time I do some betting.

 

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Fido_le_muet

Inside Track getting less and less interesting everyday. Nowadays I'm happy if I make 100k.


 

toYHMZH.png

 

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zztop911
6 hours ago, djw180 said:

I haven't noticed that, but I can't say for sure I have won 3 in a row. I'll keep a check next time I do some betting.

 

I got it last night with main and got it this morning with 2nd character.


Welcome to the nuthouse or the slaughter house................it.just depends!

You never know what's going to happen, but rest assured, it's gonna be fun!

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SINISTER120

@zztop911 is correct. In an effort to combat cheating on PC R* has changed the system.

If you win 3 times with Horses that have different odds you will most likely be kicked out of the game. If you always bet on a horse with the same odds you shouldn’t be kicked. Of course doing that requires backing out to change odds and that can get you kicked from betting for a bit. 

If you have a bet on the main event you are not able to do single events until that race is over. 

Edited by SINISTER120

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